INFLATION: TOO SOON TO TELL

You may have seen the news flash that the US annual inflation rate slowed to 2.3% in April, the lowest since February 2021. Economic pundits are commenting that the Liberation Day tariffs had no impact.

Yet buried are many recent corporate announcements, including Ford and Walmart passing through tariff price increases. Apple is also suggesting higher prices for its iPhones.

What gives?

A plausible theory notes that inflation reports are historical in nature and subject to future revisions. Also, companies may have bought inventory before the tariffs were imposed and applied a “wait and see” approach to the eventual outcomes. Further, a number of tariffs were revised or paused, and companies are still calculating the costs of changing supply chains.

A reasonable conclusion, and the one apparently embraced by the Fed, is that it’s too soon to tell.

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